Ilkeston vs Warrington Town Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Ilkeston vs Warrington Town
Model pick: Warrington Town (99%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.29 – 20.68
Total goals: 23.0
Over 2.5: 6%
Both teams score: 9%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ilkeston | Warrington Town |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.25 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Ilkeston shown at home, Warrington Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ilkeston — last 5
LWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Warrington Town — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ilkeston (home) | Warrington Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.29 vs 20.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-8 (17%) |
| Double chance — Ilkeston or draw (1X) | 1% |
| Double chance — Warrington Town or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Ilkeston clean sheet | 0% |
| Warrington Town clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warrington Town is the model's most likely outcome at
99%. Despite playing away, Warrington Town edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (94% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ilkeston vs Warrington Town — FAQ
Who will win Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
Our statistical model makes Warrington Town the most likely result at 99%. Full probabilities: Ilkeston 0%, draw 0%, Warrington Town 99%.
Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
The model gives a 9% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
Expected goals are 2.29 for Ilkeston and 20.68 for Warrington Town — about 23.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-8 (17%). Double chance for Ilkeston or draw is 1%.