Illertissen vs Bayern München II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Illertissen vs Bayern München II
Model pick: Illertissen (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.83 – 0.28
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 2.2 |
*Illertissen shown at home, Bayern München II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Illertissen — last 5
WWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Bayern München II — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Illertissen (home) | Bayern München II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 69% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.83 vs 0.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Illertissen or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Bayern München II or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Illertissen clean sheet | 76% |
| Bayern München II clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Illertissen is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Illertissen are backed at home, where they average 3.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Illertissen vs Bayern München II — FAQ
Who will win Illertissen vs Bayern München II?
Our statistical model makes Illertissen the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Illertissen 85%, draw 12%, Bayern München II 4%.
Will both teams score in Illertissen vs Bayern München II?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Illertissen vs Bayern München II?
Expected goals are 2.83 for Illertissen and 0.28 for Bayern München II — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Illertissen vs Bayern München II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (18%). Double chance for Illertissen or draw is 98%.