Illertissen vs Unterhaching Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Illertissen vs Unterhaching
Model pick: Unterhaching (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 0.99
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Illertissen | Unterhaching |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
*Illertissen shown at home, Unterhaching shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Illertissen — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Unterhaching — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Illertissen (home) | Unterhaching (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.36
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Illertissen or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Unterhaching or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Illertissen clean sheet | 37% |
| Unterhaching clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Unterhaching is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Unterhaching edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Illertissen vs Unterhaching — FAQ
Who will win Illertissen vs Unterhaching?
Our statistical model makes Unterhaching the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Illertissen 29%, draw 33%, Unterhaching 38%.
Will both teams score in Illertissen vs Unterhaching?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Illertissen vs Unterhaching?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Illertissen and 0.99 for Unterhaching — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Illertissen vs Unterhaching?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (17%). Double chance for Illertissen or draw is 61%.