Illueca vs Cuarte Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Illueca vs Cuarte
Model pick: Cuarte (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 1.17
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Illueca | Cuarte |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Illueca shown at home, Cuarte shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Illueca — last 5
LDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Cuarte — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 28% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Illueca (home) | Cuarte (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 28% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Illueca or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Cuarte or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Illueca clean sheet | 31% |
| Cuarte clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cuarte is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Cuarte edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Illueca vs Cuarte — FAQ
Who will win Illueca vs Cuarte?
Our statistical model makes Cuarte the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Illueca 23%, draw 32%, Cuarte 46%.
Will both teams score in Illueca vs Cuarte?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Illueca vs Cuarte?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Illueca and 1.17 for Cuarte — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Illueca vs Cuarte?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Illueca or draw is 52%.