Ilves vs Rijeka Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 13, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Ilves vs Rijeka
Model pick: Rijeka (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.08 – 0.72
Total goals: 0.8
Over 2.5: 16%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ilves | Rijeka |
|---|
| League position | #9 (22 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
*Ilves shown at home, Rijeka shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ilves — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Rijeka — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ilves (home) | Rijeka (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.08 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (45%) |
| Double chance — Ilves or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Rijeka or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 52% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 49% |
| Rijeka clean sheet | 92% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rijeka is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Rijeka edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (84% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ilves vs Rijeka — FAQ
Who will win Ilves vs Rijeka?
Our statistical model makes Rijeka the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Ilves 11%, draw 32%, Rijeka 57%.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Rijeka?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ilves vs Rijeka?
Expected goals are 0.08 for Ilves and 0.72 for Rijeka — about 0.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ilves vs Rijeka?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (45%). Double chance for Ilves or draw is 51%.