Ilves vs Stjarnan Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Ilves vs Stjarnan
Model pick: Stjarnan (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.12 – 0.91
Total goals: 1.0
Over 2.5: 21%
Both teams score: 24%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ilves | Stjarnan |
|---|
| League position | #9 (19 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.1 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Ilves shown at home, Stjarnan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ilves — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Stjarnan — last 5
DWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ilves (home) | Stjarnan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (1.9 / 1.1 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 62% |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.12 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (36%) |
| Double chance — Ilves or draw (1X) | 45% |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (X2) | 95% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 40% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 89% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stjarnan is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Stjarnan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (79% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ilves vs Stjarnan — FAQ
Who will win Ilves vs Stjarnan?
Our statistical model makes Stjarnan the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Ilves 6%, draw 40%, Stjarnan 53%.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 24% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ilves vs Stjarnan?
Expected goals are 0.12 for Ilves and 0.91 for Stjarnan — about 1.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ilves vs Stjarnan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (36%). Double chance for Ilves or draw is 45%.