Ilves vs VPS Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
Ilves vs VPS
Model pick: Ilves (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.17
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ilves | VPS |
|---|
| League position | #9 (25 pts) | #4 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.0 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Ilves shown at home, VPS shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ilves — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
VPS — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ilves (home) | VPS (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (1.8 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Ilves or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — VPS or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 31% |
| VPS clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ilves is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Ilves are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ilves vs VPS — FAQ
Who will win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model makes Ilves the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Ilves 43%, draw 26%, VPS 31%.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ilves vs VPS?
Expected goals are 1.89 for Ilves and 1.17 for VPS — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ilves vs VPS?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Ilves or draw is 77%.