Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata
Model pick: Montedio Yamagata (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.63
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Imabari | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|
| League position | #9 (20 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 3.2 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Imabari shown at home, Montedio Yamagata shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Imabari — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Montedio Yamagata — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Imabari (home) | Montedio Yamagata (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Imabari or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Montedio Yamagata or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Imabari clean sheet | 20% |
| Montedio Yamagata clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montedio Yamagata is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Montedio Yamagata edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata — FAQ
Who will win Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our statistical model makes Montedio Yamagata the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Imabari 36%, draw 25%, Montedio Yamagata 39%.
Will both teams score in Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Imabari and 1.63 for Montedio Yamagata — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Imabari or draw is 51%.