Independiente del Valle vs Delfin Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
Model pick: Independiente del Valle (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
70%
Independiente del Valle
Expected goals: 2.26 – 0.58
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Independiente del Valle | Delfin |
|---|
| League position | #1 (61 pts) | #15 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Independiente del Valle shown at home, Delfin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Independiente del Valle — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Delfin — last 5
WWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Independiente del Valle (home) | Delfin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-1-2 in 12 (2.3 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-3-8 in 12 (0.5 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Carlos Gonzalez (6) | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.26 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Independiente del Valle or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Independiente del Valle clean sheet | 56% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Independiente del Valle is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Independiente del Valle are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Independiente del Valle vs Delfin — FAQ
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Delfin?
Our statistical model makes Independiente del Valle the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Independiente del Valle 70%, draw 19%, Delfin 10%.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin?
Expected goals are 2.26 for Independiente del Valle and 0.58 for Delfin — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (15%). Double chance for Independiente del Valle or draw is 92%.