Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 21:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto
Model pick: Independiente Medellín (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
54%
Independiente Medellín
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Independiente Medellín | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|
| League position | #11 (26 pts) | #7 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Independiente Medellín shown at home, Deportivo Pasto shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Independiente Medellín — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pasto — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Independiente Medellín (home) | Deportivo Pasto (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Francisco Fydriszewski (4) | Andrey Estupinan Quinones (13) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Independiente Medellín or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pasto or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Independiente Medellín clean sheet | 45% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Independiente Medellín is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Independiente Medellín are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto — FAQ
Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our statistical model makes Independiente Medellín the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Independiente Medellín 54%, draw 26%, Deportivo Pasto 20%.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Independiente Medellín and 0.79 for Deportivo Pasto — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Independiente Medellín vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Independiente Medellín or draw is 82%.