Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Bolivia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (BOLIVIA)
Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Model pick: Independiente Petrolero (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
46%
Independiente Petrolero
29%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.32
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Independiente Petrolero | Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
|---|
| League position | #9 (16 pts) | #14 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Independiente Petrolero shown at home, Gualberto Villarroel SJ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Independiente Petrolero — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ — last 5
DWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Independiente Petrolero (home) | Gualberto Villarroel SJ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) | 0-3-3 in 6 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Gabriel Avalos (10) | Alex Caceres (2) |
Primera Division (Bolivia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Primera Division (Bolivia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.81 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Independiente Petrolero or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Independiente Petrolero clean sheet | 27% |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Independiente Petrolero is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Independiente Petrolero are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — FAQ
Who will win Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Our statistical model makes Independiente Petrolero the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 46%, draw 24%, Gualberto Villarroel SJ 29%.
Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Expected goals are 1.81 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.32 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Independiente Petrolero or draw is 72%.