Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Indy Eleven vs Birmingham
Model pick: Indy Eleven (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Indy Eleven | Birmingham |
|---|
| League position | #7 (28 pts) | #11 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 14% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
*Indy Eleven shown at home, Birmingham shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Indy Eleven — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Birmingham — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Indy Eleven (home) | Birmingham (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-1 in 10 (1.7 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-3-3 in 7 (1.4 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% |
| Top scorer | – | Marvin Ducksch (1) |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Indy Eleven or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Birmingham or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 28% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Indy Eleven is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Indy Eleven are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Indy Eleven vs Birmingham — FAQ
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model makes Indy Eleven the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Indy Eleven 44%, draw 26%, Birmingham 30%.
Will both teams score in Indy Eleven vs Birmingham?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Indy Eleven vs Birmingham?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Indy Eleven and 1.27 for Birmingham — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Indy Eleven vs Birmingham?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Indy Eleven or draw is 71%.