Indy Eleven vs Louisville City Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
Model pick: Louisville City (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.92
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Indy Eleven | Louisville City |
|---|
| League position | #7 (25 pts) | #4 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
*Indy Eleven shown at home, Louisville City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Indy Eleven — last 5
LLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Louisville City — last 5
WLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Indy Eleven (home) | Louisville City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-1 in 9 (1.7 / 0.8 goals per game) | 4-2-4 in 10 (2.1 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 1.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Indy Eleven or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Louisville City or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 15% |
| Louisville City clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Louisville City is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Louisville City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Indy Eleven vs Louisville City — FAQ
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Our statistical model makes Louisville City the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Indy Eleven 27%, draw 25%, Louisville City 49%.
Will both teams score in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Indy Eleven and 1.92 for Louisville City — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Indy Eleven or draw is 44%.