Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen
Model pick: Ingolstadt (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.49
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ingolstadt | Alemannia Aachen |
|---|
| League position | #5 (5 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Ingolstadt shown at home, Alemannia Aachen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ingolstadt — last 5
LLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Alemannia Aachen — last 5
WLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 72% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ingolstadt (home) | Alemannia Aachen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 72% |
| Top scorer | Dennis Kaygin (5) | Mika Schroers (15) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Ingolstadt or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Alemannia Aachen or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Ingolstadt clean sheet | 23% |
| Alemannia Aachen clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ingolstadt is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Ingolstadt are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen — FAQ
Who will win Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen?
Our statistical model makes Ingolstadt the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Ingolstadt 38%, draw 25%, Alemannia Aachen 37%.
Will both teams score in Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Ingolstadt and 1.49 for Alemannia Aachen — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Ingolstadt or draw is 66%.