Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers
Model pick: Ingolstadt (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.12 – 1.12
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ingolstadt | Würzburger Kickers |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #20 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.4 |
*Ingolstadt shown at home, Würzburger Kickers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ingolstadt — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Würzburger Kickers — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ingolstadt (home) | Würzburger Kickers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Dennis Kaygin (5) | – |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.12 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Ingolstadt or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Würzburger Kickers or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Ingolstadt clean sheet | 33% |
| Würzburger Kickers clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ingolstadt is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Ingolstadt are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers — FAQ
Who will win Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers?
Our statistical model makes Ingolstadt the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Ingolstadt 59%, draw 21%, Würzburger Kickers 19%.
Will both teams score in Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers?
Expected goals are 2.12 for Ingolstadt and 1.12 for Würzburger Kickers — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ingolstadt vs Würzburger Kickers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Ingolstadt or draw is 81%.