Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic
Model pick: Inverness CT (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Inverness CT | Dunfermline Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #1 (0 pts) | #10 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.4 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Inverness CT shown at home, Dunfermline Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Inverness CT — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunfermline Athletic — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Inverness CT (home) | Dunfermline Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 41% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Inverness CT or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Dunfermline Athletic or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Inverness CT clean sheet | 36% |
| Dunfermline Athletic clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Inverness CT is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Inverness CT are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Our statistical model makes Inverness CT the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Inverness CT 42%, draw 29%, Dunfermline Athletic 29%.
Will both teams score in Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Inverness CT and 1.01 for Dunfermline Athletic — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Inverness CT or draw is 71%.