Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle
Model pick: Inverness CT (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Inverness CT | Partick Thistle |
|---|
| League position | #7 (2 pts) | #1 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Inverness CT shown at home, Partick Thistle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Inverness CT — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Partick Thistle — last 5
WLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Inverness CT (home) | Partick Thistle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Inverness CT or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Partick Thistle or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Inverness CT clean sheet | 31% |
| Partick Thistle clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Inverness CT is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Inverness CT are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle — FAQ
Who will win Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle?
Our statistical model makes Inverness CT the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Inverness CT 36%, draw 28%, Partick Thistle 36%.
Will both teams score in Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Inverness CT and 1.16 for Partick Thistle — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Inverness CT or draw is 65%.