Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers
Model pick: Inverness CT (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Inverness CT | Raith Rovers |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #3 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Inverness CT shown at home, Raith Rovers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Inverness CT — last 5
DDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Raith Rovers — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Inverness CT (home) | Raith Rovers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 41% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.59
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Inverness CT or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Raith Rovers or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Inverness CT clean sheet | 34% |
| Raith Rovers clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Inverness CT is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Inverness CT are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers — FAQ
Who will win Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers?
Our statistical model makes Inverness CT the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Inverness CT 40%, draw 29%, Raith Rovers 32%.
Will both teams score in Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Inverness CT and 1.08 for Raith Rovers — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Inverness CT or draw is 69%.