Ipswich Town vs Sunderland Prediction & Preview
PL · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland
Model pick: Sunderland (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ipswich Town | Sunderland |
|---|
| League position | #2 (84 pts) | #10 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Ipswich Town shown at home, Sunderland shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ipswich Town — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Sunderland — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ipswich Town (home) | Sunderland (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Ipswich Town or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Sunderland or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Ipswich Town clean sheet | 26% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sunderland is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Sunderland edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Ipswich Town vs Sunderland — FAQ
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model makes Sunderland the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Ipswich Town 32%, draw 29%, Sunderland 39%.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Ipswich Town and 1.33 for Sunderland — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Ipswich Town or draw is 55%.