Irkutsk vs Murom Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Irkutsk vs Murom
Model pick: Murom (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.58
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Irkutsk | Murom |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Irkutsk shown at home, Murom shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Irkutsk — last 5
DL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Murom — last 5
WDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Irkutsk (home) | Murom (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 80% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.02
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Irkutsk or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Murom or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Irkutsk clean sheet | 21% |
| Murom clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Murom is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Murom edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Irkutsk vs Murom — FAQ
Who will win Irkutsk vs Murom?
Our statistical model makes Murom the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Irkutsk 33%, draw 26%, Murom 42%.
Will both teams score in Irkutsk vs Murom?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Irkutsk vs Murom?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Irkutsk and 1.58 for Murom — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Irkutsk vs Murom?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Irkutsk or draw is 57%.