Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg
Model pick: Zvezda St. Peterburg (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Irkutsk | Zvezda St. Peterburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Irkutsk shown at home, Zvezda St. Peterburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Irkutsk — last 5
DL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Zvezda St. Peterburg — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Irkutsk (home) | Zvezda St. Peterburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Irkutsk or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Zvezda St. Peterburg or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Irkutsk clean sheet | 24% |
| Zvezda St. Peterburg clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zvezda St. Peterburg is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Zvezda St. Peterburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg — FAQ
Who will win Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg?
Our statistical model makes Zvezda St. Peterburg the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Irkutsk 25%, draw 28%, Zvezda St. Peterburg 47%.
Will both teams score in Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Irkutsk and 1.41 for Zvezda St. Peterburg — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Peterburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Irkutsk or draw is 50%.