Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M. Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M.
Model pick: Chertanovo M. (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.54
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Iskra Smolensk | Chertanovo M. |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.25 / 1.75 |
*Iskra Smolensk shown at home, Chertanovo M. shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Iskra Smolensk — last 5
LLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Chertanovo M. — last 5
DDLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Iskra Smolensk (home) | Chertanovo M. (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 60%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Iskra Smolensk or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Chertanovo M. or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Iskra Smolensk clean sheet | 21% |
| Chertanovo M. clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chertanovo M. is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Chertanovo M. edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M. — FAQ
Who will win Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M.?
Our statistical model makes Chertanovo M. the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Iskra Smolensk 30%, draw 26%, Chertanovo M. 44%.
Will both teams score in Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M.?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M.?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Iskra Smolensk and 1.54 for Chertanovo M. — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo M.?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Iskra Smolensk or draw is 54%.