Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model pick: Istra 1961 (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Istra 1961 | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Istra 1961 shown at home, Lokomotiva Zagreb shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Istra 1961 — last 5
DWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiva Zagreb — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Istra 1961 (home) | Lokomotiva Zagreb (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Smail Prevljak (11) | Marko Pajac (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Istra 1961 or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Istra 1961 clean sheet | 29% |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Istra 1961 is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Istra 1961 are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — FAQ
Who will win Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Our statistical model makes Istra 1961 the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Istra 1961 41%, draw 27%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%.
Will both teams score in Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Istra 1961 and 1.23 for Lokomotiva Zagreb — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Istra 1961 or draw is 63%.