Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB
Model pick: Botafogo PB (64%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.6 – 1.93
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Itabaiana | Botafogo PB |
|---|
| League position | #19 (17 pts) | #2 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Itabaiana shown at home, Botafogo PB shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Itabaiana — last 5
WDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Botafogo PB — last 5
WWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Itabaiana (home) | Botafogo PB (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (0.8 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 33% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.6 vs 1.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Itabaiana or draw (1X) | 31% |
| Double chance — Botafogo PB or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Itabaiana clean sheet | 15% |
| Botafogo PB clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Botafogo PB is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Despite playing away, Botafogo PB edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB — FAQ
Who will win Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
Our statistical model makes Botafogo PB the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Itabaiana 13%, draw 23%, Botafogo PB 64%.
Will both teams score in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
Expected goals are 0.6 for Itabaiana and 1.93 for Botafogo PB — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Itabaiana or draw is 31%.