Jablonec vs Varaždin Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Jablonec vs Varaždin
Model pick: Varaždin (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.21 – 2.68
Total goals: 4.9
Over 2.5: 74%
Both teams score: 70%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jablonec | Varaždin |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
*Jablonec shown at home, Varaždin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jablonec — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Varaždin — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jablonec (home) | Varaždin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Ivan Mamut (6) |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.21 vs 2.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — Jablonec or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Jablonec clean sheet | 7% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varaždin is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Varaždin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.9, this shapes as an open game (74% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jablonec vs Varaždin — FAQ
Who will win Jablonec vs Varaždin?
Our statistical model makes Varaždin the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Jablonec 33%, draw 20%, Varaždin 47%.
Will both teams score in Jablonec vs Varaždin?
The model gives a 70% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jablonec vs Varaždin?
Expected goals are 2.21 for Jablonec and 2.68 for Varaždin — about 4.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jablonec vs Varaždin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for Jablonec or draw is 51%.