Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin
Model pick: Jagiellonia Białystok (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.28
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|
| League position | #17 (9 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.7 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Jagiellonia Białystok shown at home, Pogoń Szczecin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jagiellonia Białystok — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Pogoń Szczecin — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jagiellonia Białystok (home) | Pogoń Szczecin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Jesus Imaz (5) | Paul Mukairu (6) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Pogoń Szczecin or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet | 28% |
| Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia Białystok is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Jagiellonia Białystok are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin — FAQ
Who will win Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia Białystok the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Jagiellonia Białystok 43%, draw 26%, Pogoń Szczecin 31%.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.28 for Pogoń Szczecin — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Jagiellonia Białystok or draw is 71%.