Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki
Model pick: Jagiellonia II (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.79 – 3.07
Total goals: 6.9
Over 2.5: 87%
Both teams score: 79%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jagiellonia II | T. Mazowiecki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 2.8 / 2.2 |
*Jagiellonia II shown at home, T. Mazowiecki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jagiellonia II — last 5
WDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
T. Mazowiecki — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jagiellonia II (home) | T. Mazowiecki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.79 vs 3.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-3 (5%) |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia II or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — T. Mazowiecki or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Jagiellonia II clean sheet | 5% |
| T. Mazowiecki clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia II is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Jagiellonia II are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.9, this shapes as an open game (87% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki — FAQ
Who will win Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia II the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Jagiellonia II 50%, draw 17%, T. Mazowiecki 33%.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki?
The model gives a 79% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki?
Expected goals are 3.79 for Jagiellonia II and 3.07 for T. Mazowiecki — about 6.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia II vs T. Mazowiecki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-3 (5%). Double chance for Jagiellonia II or draw is 68%.