Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg
Model pick: MSV Duisburg (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jahn Regensburg | MSV Duisburg |
|---|
| League position | #15 (3 pts) | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Jahn Regensburg shown at home, MSV Duisburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jahn Regensburg — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
MSV Duisburg — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jahn Regensburg (home) | MSV Duisburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Conor Noss (7) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Jahn Regensburg or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — MSV Duisburg or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Jahn Regensburg clean sheet | 25% |
| MSV Duisburg clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
MSV Duisburg is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, MSV Duisburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg — FAQ
Who will win Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
Our statistical model makes MSV Duisburg the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Jahn Regensburg 32%, draw 26%, MSV Duisburg 43%.
Will both teams score in Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Jahn Regensburg and 1.39 for MSV Duisburg — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Jahn Regensburg or draw is 64%.