Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad Prediction & Preview
Division 1 (Sweden) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 1 (SWEDEN)
Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad
Model pick: FBK Karlstad (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 3.01
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jarfalla | FBK Karlstad |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Jarfalla shown at home, FBK Karlstad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jarfalla — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
FBK Karlstad — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jarfalla (home) | FBK Karlstad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Division 1 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Division 1 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 3.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — Jarfalla or draw (1X) | 23% |
| Double chance — FBK Karlstad or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Jarfalla clean sheet | 5% |
| FBK Karlstad clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FBK Karlstad is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Despite playing away, FBK Karlstad edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad — FAQ
Who will win Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad?
Our statistical model makes FBK Karlstad the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Jarfalla 12%, draw 16%, FBK Karlstad 72%.
Will both teams score in Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Jarfalla and 3.01 for FBK Karlstad — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jarfalla vs FBK Karlstad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (8%). Double chance for Jarfalla or draw is 23%.