Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska
Model pick: Biala Podlaska (96%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.35 – 5.16
Total goals: 5.5
Over 2.5: 78%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jaroslaw | Biala Podlaska |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Jaroslaw shown at home, Biala Podlaska shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jaroslaw — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Biala Podlaska — last 5
WLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jaroslaw (home) | Biala Podlaska (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 0% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.35 vs 5.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-5 (13%) |
| Double chance — Jaroslaw or draw (1X) | 2% |
| Double chance — Biala Podlaska or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 98% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Jaroslaw clean sheet | 1% |
| Biala Podlaska clean sheet | 70% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Biala Podlaska is the model's most likely outcome at
96%. Despite playing away, Biala Podlaska edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.5, this shapes as an open game (78% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska — FAQ
Who will win Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska?
Our statistical model makes Biala Podlaska the most likely result at 96%. Full probabilities: Jaroslaw 1%, draw 3%, Biala Podlaska 96%.
Will both teams score in Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska?
Expected goals are 0.35 for Jaroslaw and 5.16 for Biala Podlaska — about 5.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jaroslaw vs Biala Podlaska?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-5 (13%). Double chance for Jaroslaw or draw is 2%.