Jeju United vs Ulsan Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Jeju United vs Ulsan
Model pick: Ulsan (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jeju United | Ulsan |
|---|
| League position | #4 (38 pts) | #2 (40 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 46% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Jeju United shown at home, Ulsan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jeju United — last 5
WLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulsan — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jeju United (home) | Ulsan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-6-5 in 16 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) | 6-3-4 in 13 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Julien Celestine (1) | – |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Jeju United or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Ulsan or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Jeju United clean sheet | 27% |
| Ulsan clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ulsan is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Ulsan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jeju United vs Ulsan — FAQ
Who will win Jeju United vs Ulsan?
Our statistical model makes Ulsan the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Jeju United 34%, draw 28%, Ulsan 38%.
Will both teams score in Jeju United vs Ulsan?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jeju United vs Ulsan?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Jeju United and 1.32 for Ulsan — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jeju United vs Ulsan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Jeju United or draw is 61%.