Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen
Model pick: Ulsan Citizen (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Jeonbuk 2 | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #14 (10 pts) | #11 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Jeonbuk 2 shown at home, Ulsan Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Jeonbuk 2 — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulsan Citizen — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Jeonbuk 2 (home) | Ulsan Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-5 in 9 (1.4 / 1.9 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 48% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Jeonbuk 2 or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Ulsan Citizen or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Jeonbuk 2 clean sheet | 24% |
| Ulsan Citizen clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ulsan Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Ulsan Citizen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Ulsan Citizen the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Jeonbuk 2 30%, draw 27%, Ulsan Citizen 42%.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Jeonbuk 2 and 1.42 for Ulsan Citizen — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Jeonbuk 2 vs Ulsan Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Jeonbuk 2 or draw is 56%.