Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star Prediction & Preview
Lowland League (Scotland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LOWLAND LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star
Model pick: Johnstone Burgh (74%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.62 – 0.67
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Johnstone Burgh | Dalbeattie Star |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 3.2 |
*Johnstone Burgh shown at home, Dalbeattie Star shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Johnstone Burgh — last 5
WDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Dalbeattie Star — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Johnstone Burgh (home) | Dalbeattie Star (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
Lowland League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Lowland League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.62 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Johnstone Burgh or draw (1X) | 93% |
| Double chance — Dalbeattie Star or draw (X2) | 21% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Johnstone Burgh clean sheet | 51% |
| Dalbeattie Star clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Johnstone Burgh is the model's most likely outcome at
74%. Johnstone Burgh are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star — FAQ
Who will win Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star?
Our statistical model makes Johnstone Burgh the most likely result at 74%. Full probabilities: Johnstone Burgh 74%, draw 17%, Dalbeattie Star 10%.
Will both teams score in Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star?
Expected goals are 2.62 for Johnstone Burgh and 0.67 for Dalbeattie Star — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Johnstone Burgh vs Dalbeattie Star?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Johnstone Burgh or draw is 93%.