Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart Prediction & Preview
Lowland League (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LOWLAND LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart
Model pick: Johnstone Burgh (91%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.07 – 0.43
Total goals: 4.5
Over 2.5: 71%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Johnstone Burgh | Newton Stewart |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.75 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 4.5 |
*Johnstone Burgh shown at home, Newton Stewart shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Johnstone Burgh — last 5
LWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Newton Stewart — last 5
LLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Johnstone Burgh (home) | Newton Stewart (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Lowland League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.46
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Lowland League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.07 vs 0.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Johnstone Burgh or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Newton Stewart or draw (X2) | 5% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Johnstone Burgh clean sheet | 65% |
| Newton Stewart clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Johnstone Burgh is the model's most likely outcome at
91%. Johnstone Burgh are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.5, this shapes as an open game (71% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart — FAQ
Who will win Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart?
Our statistical model makes Johnstone Burgh the most likely result at 91%. Full probabilities: Johnstone Burgh 91%, draw 6%, Newton Stewart 2%.
Will both teams score in Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart?
Expected goals are 4.07 for Johnstone Burgh and 0.43 for Newton Stewart — about 4.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Johnstone Burgh vs Newton Stewart?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-0 (13%). Double chance for Johnstone Burgh or draw is 99%.