Újpest vs MTK Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Újpest vs MTK
Model pick: Újpest (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.56
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Újpest | MTK |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Újpest shown at home, MTK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Újpest — last 5
DWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
MTK — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Újpest (home) | MTK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (3.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.81 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 21% |
| MTK clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Újpest is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Újpest are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Újpest vs MTK — FAQ
Who will win Újpest vs MTK?
Our statistical model makes Újpest the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Újpest 42%, draw 24%, MTK 34%.
Will both teams score in Újpest vs MTK?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Újpest vs MTK?
Expected goals are 1.81 for Újpest and 1.56 for MTK — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Újpest vs MTK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Újpest or draw is 66%.