Újpest vs Vasas Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Újpest vs Vasas
Model pick: Újpest (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Újpest | Vasas |
|---|
| League position | #5 (7 pts) | #3 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Újpest shown at home, Vasas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Újpest — last 5
LWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasas — last 5
DDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Újpest (home) | Vasas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Vasas or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 24% |
| Vasas clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Újpest is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Újpest are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Újpest vs Vasas — FAQ
Who will win Újpest vs Vasas?
Our statistical model makes Újpest the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Újpest 39%, draw 26%, Vasas 35%.
Will both teams score in Újpest vs Vasas?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Újpest vs Vasas?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Újpest and 1.41 for Vasas — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Újpest vs Vasas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Újpest or draw is 58%.