Juárez vs América Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Juárez vs América
Model pick: América (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.8
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juárez | América |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #3 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 3.0 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 3.2 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Juárez shown at home, América shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juárez — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
América — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juárez (home) | América (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Estupinan (15) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Juárez or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — América or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Juárez clean sheet | 17% |
| América clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
América is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, América edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juárez vs América — FAQ
Who will win Juárez vs América?
Our statistical model makes América the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Juárez 23%, draw 25%, América 52%.
Will both teams score in Juárez vs América?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Juárez vs América?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Juárez and 1.8 for América — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juárez vs América?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Juárez or draw is 42%.