Juárez vs Pachuca Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Juárez vs Pachuca
Model pick: Pachuca (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juárez | Pachuca |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #14 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 2.7 | 1.3 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Juárez shown at home, Pachuca shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juárez — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Pachuca — last 5
LWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juárez (home) | Pachuca (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.7 / 2.7 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.3 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Estupinan (15) | Kenedy (9) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Juárez or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Pachuca or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Juárez clean sheet | 23% |
| Pachuca clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pachuca is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Pachuca edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juárez vs Pachuca — FAQ
Who will win Juárez vs Pachuca?
Our statistical model makes Pachuca the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Juárez 28%, draw 26%, Pachuca 45%.
Will both teams score in Juárez vs Pachuca?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Juárez vs Pachuca?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Juárez and 1.49 for Pachuca — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juárez vs Pachuca?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Juárez or draw is 57%.