Juárez vs Pumas UNAM Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Juárez vs Pumas UNAM
Model pick: Juárez (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juárez | Pumas UNAM |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #10 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Juárez shown at home, Pumas UNAM shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juárez — last 5
DWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Pumas UNAM — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juárez (home) | Pumas UNAM (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Estupinan (15) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Juárez or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Pumas UNAM or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Juárez clean sheet | 25% |
| Pumas UNAM clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Juárez is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Juárez are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juárez vs Pumas UNAM — FAQ
Who will win Juárez vs Pumas UNAM?
Our statistical model makes Juárez the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Juárez 37%, draw 27%, Pumas UNAM 36%.
Will both teams score in Juárez vs Pumas UNAM?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Juárez vs Pumas UNAM?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Juárez and 1.4 for Pumas UNAM — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juárez vs Pumas UNAM?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Juárez or draw is 61%.