Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima
Model pick: Alianza Lima (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.91 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juan Pablo II | Alianza Lima |
|---|
| League position | #16 (17 pts) | #1 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Juan Pablo II shown at home, Alianza Lima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juan Pablo II — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 52% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Lima — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juan Pablo II (home) | Alianza Lima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 52% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Martin Alaniz (4) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.91 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Juan Pablo II or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Juan Pablo II clean sheet | 26% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Alianza Lima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima — FAQ
Who will win Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Juan Pablo II 27%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 44%.
Will both teams score in Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima?
Expected goals are 0.91 for Juan Pablo II and 1.33 for Alianza Lima — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juan Pablo II vs Alianza Lima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Juan Pablo II or draw is 54%.