Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau
Model pick: Juan Pablo II (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juan Pablo II | Atlético Grau |
|---|
| League position | #16 (17 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Juan Pablo II shown at home, Atlético Grau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juan Pablo II — last 5
WLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Grau — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juan Pablo II (home) | Atlético Grau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Martin Alaniz (4) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Juan Pablo II or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Atlético Grau or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Juan Pablo II clean sheet | 35% |
| Atlético Grau clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Juan Pablo II is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Juan Pablo II are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau — FAQ
Who will win Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau?
Our statistical model makes Juan Pablo II the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Juan Pablo II 39%, draw 30%, Atlético Grau 31%.
Will both teams score in Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Juan Pablo II and 1.06 for Atlético Grau — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juan Pablo II vs Atlético Grau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Juan Pablo II or draw is 66%.