Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado
Model pick: Juventud (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.81
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juventud | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|
| League position | #3 (7 pts) | #2 (46 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*Juventud shown at home, Deportivo Maldonado shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juventud — last 5
WDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Maldonado — last 5
LDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juventud (home) | Deportivo Maldonado (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (2.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Federico Barrandeguy (3) | – |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Juventud or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maldonado or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Juventud clean sheet | 44% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Juventud is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Juventud are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado — FAQ
Who will win Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our statistical model makes Juventud the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Juventud 38%, draw 30%, Deportivo Maldonado 32%.
Will both teams score in Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Juventud and 0.81 for Deportivo Maldonado — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Juventud or draw is 77%.