Juventude vs Avaí Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 28, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Juventude vs Avaí
Model pick: Juventude (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 0.8
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juventude | Avaí |
|---|
| League position | #4 (32 pts) | #17 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 0.1 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Juventude shown at home, Avaí shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juventude — last 5
DDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Avaí — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juventude (home) | Avaí (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-1 in 10 (1.4 / 0.1 goals per game) | 1-2-6 in 9 (1.0 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Safira Alisson (3) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Juventude or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Juventude clean sheet | 45% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Juventude is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Juventude are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juventude vs Avaí — FAQ
Who will win Juventude vs Avaí?
Our statistical model makes Juventude the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Juventude 42%, draw 31%, Avaí 26%.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Avaí?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Juventude vs Avaí?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Juventude and 0.8 for Avaí — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juventude vs Avaí?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Juventude or draw is 75%.