Juventus II vs Pergolettese Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Juventus II vs Pergolettese
Model pick: Juventus II (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Juventus II | Pergolettese |
|---|
| League position | #3 (4 pts) | #16 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 16% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Juventus II shown at home, Pergolettese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Juventus II — last 5
LDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Pergolettese — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Juventus II (home) | Pergolettese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 3-8-8 in 19 (0.8 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 41% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Juventus II or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Pergolettese or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Juventus II clean sheet | 40% |
| Pergolettese clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Juventus II is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Juventus II are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Juventus II vs Pergolettese — FAQ
Who will win Juventus II vs Pergolettese?
Our statistical model makes Juventus II the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Juventus II 49%, draw 27%, Pergolettese 24%.
Will both teams score in Juventus II vs Pergolettese?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Juventus II vs Pergolettese?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Juventus II and 0.92 for Pergolettese — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Juventus II vs Pergolettese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Juventus II or draw is 77%.