KA vs Thor Akureyri Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
KA vs Thor Akureyri
Model pick: KA (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.4 – 1.7
Total goals: 5.1
Over 2.5: 76%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| KA | Thor Akureyri |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 3.33 |
*KA shown at home, Thor Akureyri shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
KA — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Thor Akureyri — last 5
DLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | KA (home) | Thor Akureyri (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 100% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.4 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — KA or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Thor Akureyri or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| KA clean sheet | 18% |
| Thor Akureyri clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
KA is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. KA are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.1, this shapes as an open game (76% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ KA vs Thor Akureyri — FAQ
Who will win KA vs Thor Akureyri?
Our statistical model makes KA the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: KA 65%, draw 17%, Thor Akureyri 18%.
Will both teams score in KA vs Thor Akureyri?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in KA vs Thor Akureyri?
Expected goals are 3.4 for KA and 1.7 for Thor Akureyri — about 5.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in KA vs Thor Akureyri?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (7%). Double chance for KA or draw is 84%.