Kairat vs Irtysh Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Kazakhstan) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (KAZAKHSTAN)
Kairat vs Irtysh
Model pick: Kairat (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.4 – 0.64
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kairat | Irtysh |
|---|
| League position | #36 (1 pts) | #16 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.2 / 2.5 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Kairat shown at home, Irtysh shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kairat — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Irtysh — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kairat (home) | Irtysh (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.2 / 2.5 goals per game) | 1-5-5 in 11 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Jorginho (1) | – |
Premier League (Kazakhstan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Kazakhstan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.4 vs 0.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Kairat or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Irtysh or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Kairat clean sheet | 53% |
| Irtysh clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kairat is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Kairat are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kairat vs Irtysh — FAQ
Who will win Kairat vs Irtysh?
Our statistical model makes Kairat the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Kairat 71%, draw 18%, Irtysh 11%.
Will both teams score in Kairat vs Irtysh?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kairat vs Irtysh?
Expected goals are 2.4 for Kairat and 0.64 for Irtysh — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kairat vs Irtysh?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Kairat or draw is 92%.