Kalisz vs Elana Toruń Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kalisz vs Elana Toruń
Model pick: Kalisz (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kalisz | Elana Toruń |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Kalisz shown at home, Elana Toruń shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kalisz — last 5
LWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Elana Toruń — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kalisz (home) | Elana Toruń (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Kalisz or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Elana Toruń or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Kalisz clean sheet | 44% |
| Elana Toruń clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kalisz is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Kalisz are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kalisz vs Elana Toruń — FAQ
Who will win Kalisz vs Elana Toruń?
Our statistical model makes Kalisz the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Kalisz 42%, draw 31%, Elana Toruń 27%.
Will both teams score in Kalisz vs Elana Toruń?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kalisz vs Elana Toruń?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Kalisz and 0.83 for Elana Toruń — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kalisz vs Elana Toruń?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Kalisz or draw is 74%.