Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow
Model pick: Kalisz (83%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.03 – 0.01
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 12%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kalisz | Notec Czarnkow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Kalisz shown at home, Notec Czarnkow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kalisz — last 5
LDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Notec Czarnkow — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kalisz (home) | Notec Czarnkow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.03 vs 0.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (27%) |
| Double chance — Kalisz or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Notec Czarnkow or draw (X2) | 13% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Kalisz clean sheet | 99% |
| Notec Czarnkow clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kalisz is the model's most likely outcome at
83%. Kalisz are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow — FAQ
Who will win Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow?
Our statistical model makes Kalisz the most likely result at 83%. Full probabilities: Kalisz 83%, draw 17%, Notec Czarnkow 0%.
Will both teams score in Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow?
The model gives a 12% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow?
Expected goals are 2.03 for Kalisz and 0.01 for Notec Czarnkow — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kalisz vs Notec Czarnkow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (27%). Double chance for Kalisz or draw is 100%.