Kalmar vs Djurgården Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Kalmar vs Djurgården
Model pick: Djurgården (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.66
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kalmar | Djurgården |
|---|
| League position | #13 (19 pts) | #3 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 62% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 2.8 / 0.8 |
*Kalmar shown at home, Djurgården shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kalmar — last 5
LLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Djurgården — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kalmar (home) | Djurgården (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.8 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kalmar or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Djurgården or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Kalmar clean sheet | 19% |
| Djurgården clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Djurgården is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Djurgården edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kalmar vs Djurgården — FAQ
Who will win Kalmar vs Djurgården?
Our statistical model makes Djurgården the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Kalmar 23%, draw 25%, Djurgården 52%.
Will both teams score in Kalmar vs Djurgården?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kalmar vs Djurgården?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Kalmar and 1.66 for Djurgården — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kalmar vs Djurgården?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Kalmar or draw is 47%.