Kalmar vs Hammarby Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Kalmar vs Hammarby
Model pick: Hammarby (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.69
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kalmar | Hammarby |
|---|
| League position | #11 (18 pts) | #2 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Kalmar shown at home, Hammarby shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kalmar — last 5
LDWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Hammarby — last 5
DDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kalmar (home) | Hammarby (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-1 in 8 (1.8 / 0.9 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.0 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Kalmar or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Hammarby or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Kalmar clean sheet | 18% |
| Hammarby clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hammarby is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Hammarby edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kalmar vs Hammarby — FAQ
Who will win Kalmar vs Hammarby?
Our statistical model makes Hammarby the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Kalmar 23%, draw 25%, Hammarby 52%.
Will both teams score in Kalmar vs Hammarby?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kalmar vs Hammarby?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Kalmar and 1.69 for Hammarby — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kalmar vs Hammarby?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Kalmar or draw is 47%.